I just got back from the polling station. In our riding, cynical people sometimes wonder why they vote because it usually has one of the most one-sided results in Canada with the winner often capturing more votes than all the other parties combined! But each vote is a voice, each voice is a person, and each person matters. Our riding is completely unlike what seems to be happening in Canada as a whole. Pollsters and political pundits are saying this could be the closest election in recent history. I always like it when they are wrong but from all I am hearing I tend to agree this time. I have a theory as to why this is.
Although this year we have six major parties vying for seats across the country, there are only two who have a legitimate chance of forming the government. Neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives have galvanized the electorate this time around. Last election voters were tired of Harper and Trudeau was the fresh face of positivity with new vision and energy. Now, after four years in power, Trudeau’s youthful face and sunny ways have been marred by scandal. It seems power corrupts no matter who is in power. The alternative, Andrew Scheer, seems like a nice guy but he has not drawn voters to himself or his party; their negative ad campaign highlights the fact that the main reason people will vote for him is because it will be a vote against Trudeau. Both of them will be splitting their vote with other parties. Scheer has to contend with his former Conservative rival, Maxime Bernier and the People’s Party while Trudeau will lose votes and even seats to the NDP and the Greens.
The unattractiveness of the two main leaders is contrasted by the surprising popularity of Jagmeet Singh, the leader of Canada’s so-called “third party.” Although nationally unknown when he became leader of the NDP, his youthful energy, charm, and wit have captured the hearts of some of the same voters who were taken with Trudeau four years ago. But he leads the NDP and they were just too far behind to start with; and as noted, they are fighting for some of the same votes as the Green Party and the Liberals. Singh’s sudden and surprising popularity will not make him prime minister but it will add to the closeness of the final results today.
Journalists are saying that there is a good possibility, not only of a minority government, but also of a coalition between two or more parties. It might be messy but I don’t think a close election result is all bad; minority governments can be very effective. A minority and/or a coalition forces parties to work together on behalf of the electorate. Although the Green Party will probably not get enough seats to make a big difference, I do appreciate the spirit of collaboration that is exemplary to all parties. Their recent ads with children holding signs are good advice to all party leaders, e.g. “The best way to build is to work together.” The Pearson minority government in the 1960’s, although chaotic, got us the Canada Pension Plan, universal health care, and a new flag. Not a bad record! Very few people, including me, thought the NDP/Green coalition in BC would last more than a few weeks but here we are a few years later holding our own as a province. Although it makes things messier than a clear majority, I think the foundation of Canada’s political stability will hold fast and we will have another responsible government no matter the election results.